Dream Investment Buys?

[mousemills]

I'm shamelessly looking to plunder everyone's knowledge on the following...I'd like to buy a couple of 'investment' bottles, one or two for each of my children (who are both under 3 at the moment) as gifts for some time in the future - either their weddings/birth of their children etc. If you could compose a 'top 5' whisky list (priced today up to a maximum of £2000 for each bottle) that were likely to grow in value and make a nice return should they sell them in 20/30 years what would you have and why?!

[objetti]

2000£ a bottle are an awful lot of money and you could get almost any whisky within that range. Black and the new White Bowmore, Ardbegs OB SCs, Old Macallans, Springbanks, Brora, Port Ellen or any superold limited deluxe packaged OB (preferably from a closed destillery) would be typical suggestions in that range.
I would rather go for whisky that is great to drink (and I would wish that is also what would increase most in value). Of course the Bowmore´s and Ardbeg´s etc above seems to be great whiskies but I have never tried a whisky for more than 200£ a bottle.
Here is my current top 10 of whiskies that have been recently (last 12 months) easily available (links are for reference only - not endorsment of good business necessarily)
They are all OBs and that is most likely a factor for future value also.

96 Laphroaig 30yr
http://www.whiskydepot.com/art/LAP-015_ ... oKi_30.asp
95 Talisker 20 yr 1981
http://www.masterofmalt.com/shopping/sh ... sp?id=1385
94 Highhland Park Single Cask, cask no 1602 1990
http://www.whiskyfun.com/archiveapril07-2.html#300407
93 Lagavulin 21yr
http://www.houseofwhisky.de/preview/aus ... rch_order=%&anfang=700
93 Ardbeg Lord of the Isles (L3)
http://www.oldwhisky.net/botella.php?cod=A38&cat=Islay
93 Karuizawa Vintage 1971 SC
http://www.whisky.fr/produit.php?id=14775
92 Port Ellen 7th release
http://www.whisky24.de/tws/product_info ... lease.html
92 Laphroaig Feis Isle 2007 (1989 17yr)
http://www.thewhiskybarrel.com/cat-4-su ... product-49
92 Auchentoshan 31 yrs 1973 cask 803
http://www.vooreenmooiglas.nl/index.php ... kys&id=805
92 Karuizawa Vintage 1981 SC
http://www.thewhiskyexchange.com/P-6903.aspx

[irishwhiskeychaser]

If you could compose a 'top 5' whisky list (priced today up to a maximum of £2000 for each bottle) that were likely to grow in value and make a nice return should they sell them in 20/30 years what would you have and why?!

Firstly it is a waste of money to buy at the top of the market .... these bottles are basically at their peak value and will only climb slowly from now on.

The Ardbeg 65 is a good example as it is probably worth less now than when it came out if it went to auction so be very careful with your money.

I do not have enough knowledge on Scotch to tell you exactly what to buy but from an investment £300 a bottle should be totally sufficient.

Ones that spring to mind that are great whiskies are Lagavulin 21yo (Circa £130-150) or Laphroaig 30yo (£200-250) and probably well worth a punt. These are finished as expressions and will only gain higher status as the years go by.


Maybe even a better idea would be to invest in 2 casks at about a grand each and then they can then bottle it when they want. Usually that grand cover 10years so you will probably have to pay extra for anything beyond that but that should still be less than 2000 Grand per child and a good return is nearly guaranteed

[mousemills]

Both really useful responses thanks...I'd not thought about getting several bottles around the £250 mark instead of 1 much dearer one but sounds like a plan!

[r900p]

Or instead of some casks as IWC has said, how about some futures? Kilchoman, Bruichladdich, St Georges (English distillery).

But a cask would be more fun, you get to sample it year on year until its ten or whenever you'd bottl it.

Rob

[wolpertinger]

Difficult to say what to buy - easier to say what NOT to go for.

Fancy wood-boxed decanters aimed for the collector are usually a NO - they are for the showroom and hardly ever get drunk and are already too expensive on the day they're sold.
The malt connoisseurs are the malt investors best friends. They do what is best for the speculant - they open and drink the stuff, thus reducing numbers of available bottles.
Therefore bottlings where nobody knows the contents are another NO
Example: Ben Wyvis 1968

According to the laws of the market the supply has to be lower than the demand for the price to raise steadily.
Distilleries realized the potential in malt collectors and are flooding the market with special super duper limited extra sepcial reserve editions *yawnarama*
Bottlings from medium rated active distilleries are a NO, no matter how much packing comes with the bottle or how limited it is.
Example: Bruichladdich

And then, like on the stock market: "The trend is your friend". Bottles sitting on the same price level or rising only slowly will most probably do so in the future.
Check old auction catalogues from McTears or whiskyauction.com - bottlings that haven't moved a lot are a NO
Example: most IB of medium rated distilleries even if they're very old. Glen Grant 1955-2005 G&M; 50 years old - forget it.

just my 2 cents

[orangedogofglory]

Also "standard" bottles are good to add, especially at cheap prices. If your children end up enjoying whisky, it would be fun to have a current Ardbeg 10 or Balvenie 10 or Doublewood to compare to those releases. Examples of this in action are the old old packaging of the Ardbeg 10 (I guess a completely different taste) and of course Bruichladdich. But even releases that have been around for a while like the Balvenie Doublewood have changed over time from what I hear, without any drastic change in packaging/distillery ownership.

So, picking up great bottles like Laphroaig 30 would be fun, and maybe pair that with a Laphroaig 10 or Laphroaig 15. Then you can do vertical tastings, as well as tastings over time.

Although I don't think any child would complain knowing that at some point there is a cask waiting for them.

[Bulkington]

"Ones that spring to mind that are great whiskies are Lagavulin 21yo (Circa £130-150) or Laphroaig 30yo (£200-250) and probably well worth a punt. These are finished as expressions and will only gain higher status as the years go by."

I think it's interesting enough to speculate on how much the Lag 21 and Laph 30 will be worth even just by this time next year. In 20 to 30 years they'll be treasures.

[whiskyandice]

i think you should just invest the money in a savings account as the whisky market is going to slow down considerably just like the housing market and credit crunch, if you buy a bottle now for £2000 you will really struggle in ten or twenty years time to sell it for more than you paid for it, you would be a lot better off buying lots of cheaper limited edition bottlings through out the next few years from the likes of macallan highland park ardbeg bowmore etc and also try pick up as many staff only bottles as these will be a lot more valuble for example if you jump the gun and buy dear, highland park are selling their 40 year old at £899 one sold on ebay this week for £475 thats nearly half price take it easy

[Deactivated Member]

Thirty years ago, people hadn't thought of collecting single malts. There are few surviving single malt bottles from the 1970s or earlier. By the 1980s, these bottles had become valuavble, so people started collecting single malts. There's tons of the stuff sloshing around waiting to become valuable, with more added to the pool every year. Right bow, people still think you can differentiate between bottlings - with some seen as desirable and others not. My guess is that in 20 years time, people will long ago have forgotten whiah bottles were only available mail order for friends of a distillery and whisk ones were sold in shops. You'll just have people seeing them for what they are - bottles of whisky. My guess is that whisky won't be any more collectable than brandy or wine. The occasional old bottle will sell well, but mostly it will just be much of a muchness - with nobody terribly interested in the heaps of collectable bottles currently being issued to feed the frenzy. That's how collectable marketswork - look at stamps, look at football programmes, look at beanie babies.

I'm not even sure that closed distilleries will be much of a safe banker. Prices of Ladyburn have plummeted recently; Glen Esks and Dallas Dhus are still cheap, after all these years. When they run out, they run out - but nobody really wants them now so I don't see why anyone would want them in the future.

I think whisky has peaked - and I think the ever increasing number of collectors who seem to want to offload collections points to a market that is saturated and falling.

[Newbie]

No such thing as a dream investment buy! If there was I would be a very rich man

Whisky is definitely in its boom phase at the moment and the whisky industry has been exploiting this fact and releasing whisky at inflated prices. I've only been into malts for just over 8 months and I can see the rises in prices. I kinda wish that the whisky market would slow down and prices would fall back to a more affordable level! I have enough to worry about with increasing fuel and foods costs without worrying about the increasing cost of my drams!

[FirewallXL5]

Wish my dad was so enlightened, no Black Bowmore laid down for me, not even a bl**dy miniature.
I have some misgivings about the idea of stocking up on whisky (of whatever desirability) for 2-3 year olds. However there's nothing wrong with a spot of luxury and decadence for those who can afford it and an uber-premium malt remains more affordable than certain other luxury items - say a top of the range Supercar?
I did get a Raleigh bike, it's still in my shed, my hopes of a windfall remain unfulfilled but I live in hope.....
In the >£2000 price range we are somewhat detached from reality but for that very special purchase surely Macallan represents the gold standard and the 'Fine and Rare' range seems the obvious choice. Pick 2 years with special family significance and you're sorted.
There appears to be enough wealthy Russians & middle-east entrepreneurs interested in Scotch to ensure that values at the topend stay high. (however, with a nod to Nick Brown, I don't see them chasing after Corryvreckan or Serendipity or HP QoS on ebay - that's strictly for muppets).
I suggest also that Bowmore 1964 (black, pink, green, or orange) will not disappoint price-wise in 20-30 years.
Slightly down-market (its relative!) are the Glenfarclas Family Casks, and to round out this fantasy-list list I would include selected single cask Springbanks (from the 1960's) and Arbegs (from the 19'70s) .
So there you have it. No promises and undeniably expensive but all the above should prove solid long term investments.
Now, off to give my dad a good kicking.

[Sherried Malt]

...for that very special purchase surely Macallan represents the gold standard and the 'Fine and Rare' range seems the obvious choice. Pick 2 years with special family significance and you're sorted.

There appears to be enough wealthy Russians & middle-east entrepreneurs interested in Scotch to ensure that values at the topend stay high. (however, with a nod to Nick Brown, I don't see them chasing after Corryvreckan or Serendipity or HP QoS on ebay - that's strictly for muppets).

Excellent points. The newly wealthy in Brazil, Russia, India and China will likely seek out luxury status items with the greatest name recognition and Macallan surely tops the scotch list. (As Rolex might dominate its field...) Don't think their interest will extend much beyond that one name.

Would also agree that the whisky market seems very frothy right now and I'm not sure this momentum will last until your kids reach drinking age. Besides, who knows if they'll be whisky fans???

However you decide to go, good luck with your choices!

[kildalton]

Imho very expensive bottling are NEVER an investement.
Real affairs are the bottles cheap that one day will become rare and sought after.
I were you I consider to store some cases of Glendronach 15 and Ardbeg 10.

Then buy some Port Ellen considering that with the passing of years will be more rare to have young Port Ellen,(I stored a certain amount of 11 y.o Port Ellen years ago and now so young Port Ellens are increasing their value)

A 600£ pound bottle will rise in price very little comparing a 30£ one that after 20 years might sell for 250.

(Think about old ardbeg 10 black label golden logo,
or very young ardbeg in recent times...I bought 2 6-bottles cases and it costed about 30 euros per bottle, now it solds for 120...)

So, but it's just my opinion, consider also bottles that now are cheap,
about high range bottles I'd go for a Lagavulin 21 and a Lagavulin 30.
Even some single cask ardbeg OB might be of interest but nowadays thery are very expensive from the start(ah...Long gone are the times when I bought a single cask for 240£ or less...)

Hope this might be of interest

[Deactivated Member]

The newly wealthy in Brazil, Russia, India and China will likely seek out luxury status items with the greatest name recognition and Macallan surely tops the scotch list. (As Rolex might dominate its field...) Don't think their interest will extend much beyond that one name.

I suspect also that they'd be interested in the most expensive new bottlings for consumption but would be less interested in "second hand" whisky. If they want whisky at all.

[orangedogofglory]

The newly wealthy in Brazil, Russia, India and China will likely seek out luxury status items with the greatest name recognition and Macallan surely tops the scotch list. (As Rolex might dominate its field...) Don't think their interest will extend much beyond that one name.

I suspect also that they'd be interested in the most expensive new bottlings for consumption but would be less interested in "second hand" whisky. If they want whisky at all.

these sound like artificial limitations placed on what others' tastes will be. speculation at its best, really.

and in terms of the OP, that is really the name of the investment game, which in turn is probably the best argument for buying for future consumption rather than potential liquidation value. besides, even if you buy something for $400 now, and in 20 years it has increased to $1000, its only an annual return of 5%. So maybe a store of value, but not sure as an investment.

[objetti]

...for that very special purchase surely Macallan represents the gold standard and the 'Fine and Rare' range seems the obvious choice. Pick 2 years with special family significance and you're sorted.

There appears to be enough wealthy Russians & middle-east entrepreneurs interested in Scotch to ensure that values at the topend stay high. (however, with a nod to Nick Brown, I don't see them chasing after Corryvreckan or Serendipity or HP QoS on ebay - that's strictly for muppets).

Excellent points. The newly wealthy in Brazil, Russia, India and China will likely seek out luxury status items with the greatest name recognition and Macallan surely tops the scotch list. (As Rolex might dominate its field...) Don't think their interest will extend much beyond that one name.

Why would "The newly wealthy in Brazil, Russia, India and China" behave differently than the ones in western europe and USA that have turned into whisky afficionados and gotten deep into the malt hobby?

[Sherried Malt]

The newly wealthy in Brazil, Russia, India and China will likely seek out luxury status items with the greatest name recognition and Macallan surely tops the scotch list. (As Rolex might dominate its field...) Don't think their interest will extend much beyond that one name.

I suspect also that they'd be interested in the most expensive new bottlings for consumption but would be less interested in "second hand" whisky. If they want whisky at all.

these sound like artificial limitations placed on what others' tastes will be. speculation at its best, really.

Sure, any opinion on the future is by definition conjecture or speculation. No better, no worse.

[Sherried Malt]

Why would "The newly wealthy in Brazil, Russia, India and China" behave differently than the ones in western europe and USA that have turned into whisky afficionados and gotten deep into the malt hobby?

Sure, no doubt there will be those that dive deeper into single malts. However, I believe they will be the small minority. I believe the vast majority will view expensive whiskies as yet another status symbol. "I'm buying it because I can."

[bcrossan]

Sometimes the best bets are on stuff at the low end of the spectrum. Ardbeg TEN may become one of those.

Curious to hear more of your thinking here on why Ardbeg 10 could be a good investment down the road? Is that because they change packaging enough to draw a distinction between the different versions or releases of the 10?

[papercrack]

The current ten is apparently a top whisky for the cost ( Do not drink the stuff but heavy drinkers like Nick B could confirm ). It is rumoured the contents are much older than 10 years old at present.

It is possible other Tens may be very different.

Before the herds know it a classic could be in very short supply.Currently in supermarkets for £22.

[bcrossan]

The current ten is apparently a top whisky for the cost ( Do not drink the stuff but heavy drinkers like Nick B could confirm ). It is rumoured the contents are much older than 10 years old at present.

It is possible other Tens may be very different.

Before the herds know it a classic could be in very short supply.Currently in supermarkets for £22.

Much better price across the pond. It is about $65 here in most shops near me.

[Deactivated Member]

Let's address a couple of points sent my way:

Firstly, I don't understand the point about imposing artificial constraints. I cannot impose constraints on other collectors - they do whatever they choose. However, I wouldn't assume that newly rich people in Russia, India, China or anywhere else would behave the same way as people in Western Europe or USA. In Japan and other far eastern countries, for example, demand is for very old and very expensive blends. I'm not aware of demand in the far east for old bottlings - just very expensive new ones. In Russia, the new rich appear to want brand labels, lavish packaging and high price tags. They don't appear to spend much time researching quality and finding hidden gems - they seem to want up front conspicuous spending. The Indian climate would probably not lend itself terribly well to fine whiskies, and I'm not sure that China has much of a culture for drinking fine spirits, either. I think they are more into fine teas. Of course this is all pure speculation, but I don't see any evidence to support the idea of new markets for existing collections of whisky.

And is Ardbeg 10 worth investment? I'd say no. Collectors like visual products that are easily distinguished from other products. Ardbeg 10 is having the packaging slightly tweaked, but it will basically look similar to the current packaging. People now may know that Ardbeg 10 has older whisky and that it scored well in the Whisky Bible, but this is ephemeral knowledge. In 20 years time, people aren't going to be looking up bar codes to see how old a bottling is and cross referencing it against the tasting guides of the time. Ardbeg 10 is fine if you want a drinking whisky, but I wouldn't expect it to show a long term return.

And as I said upthread, I don't expect the thousands and thousands of whisky bottles that are currently being hoarded to behave in the same way as the few bottles that have survived from the 1960s and 1970s.

[kyorke1]

No such thing as a dream investment buy! If there was I would be a very rich man

Ardbeg Supernova -
Ardbeg - £65
eBay - £255
(in a couple of weeks)

Black Bowmore 29 yo First Edition -
1993 - ~£80 (According to TWE)
Soon after shoots to over £2000

I have been tempted to invest in bottles before; to me it's a win win situation - If one buys a whisky and it increases in price then great, on the other hand if it doesn't then he/she has a whisky to enjoy (assuming it's a good one). Also as lohssanami nicely puts it, the enjoyment of collecting as well as the challenge of estimating which could be valuable in the future makes it interesting along with the research needed into various whiskies.

Has anyone else been tempted to or is investing in bottles at the moment? Any horror or success stories?

Where I have difficulty is when people target specific limited editions with a view to selling on in very short timescale at a very inflated price. I wish distilleries would do more to stop people like this buying up multiple bottles, although the people who do this seem to find ways to cheat anyway. These people are just plain parasites.

Couldn't agree more, this is what happened with the Supernova despite efforts to avoid this.

I have seen a few odd 'New Members' post queries on whether a particular whisky is worth investing in for the future, which I find amusing and wait to see what advice is given. If I don't think it is worth investing in, I have been tempted to say 'Yes, I have already bought 6 of these for future reselling' . What do people think of these members, should we accurately assist them?

[rtp3]

and in terms of the OP, that is really the name of the investment game, which in turn is probably the best argument for buying for future consumption rather than potential liquidation value. besides, even if you buy something for $400 now, and in 20 years it has increased to $1000, its only an annual return of 5%. So maybe a store of value, but not sure as an investment.

I think that this is the key ... it is like all of those people who invested in property and spent £10,000 on a £100,000 house and then sold it for £120,000 after having it for two years. They thought that they were making money but over the same period (or reasonably high interest rates and stock market return) they would have gotten more profit w/o doing anything with their money.

On the subject of whisky/wine/anything consumable, I think that the best adage is for people to consume, not collect. Whisky is made to drink, not to set on a shelf or in a cabinet. I can understand buying something for yourself and holding onto it for a couple of years (for a special occasion ... for instance, buying a special bottle on the birth of a baby to open when they reach the legal age). But, not as an investment, b/c as with any other collectibles, there is no guarantee that you are not buying at the top of the cycle (for evidence of this, watch any episode about collectibles on BBC daytime).

[Aidan]

[quote="rtp3]On the subject of whisky/wine/anything consumable, I think that the best adage is for people to consume, not collect. Whisky is made to drink, not to set on a shelf or in a cabinet.[/quote]

I'm not sure if this is entirely true. If it was just made to consume, they would not be putting it in fancy bottles or advertising the fact that it's limited. It tastes the same coming out of an elephant-shaped bottle as it does coming out of a standard one.

Some of the stuff in a bottle is more valuable as a collectable than a consumable - Loch Dhu, for example.

I am not an expert, but like all investments, don't naturally assume anything is going up in value. Whisky could be worth a lot less in a few years time. Who knows?

[Sherried Malt]

I am not an expert, but like all investments, don't naturally assume anything is going up in value. Whisky could be worth a lot less in a few years time. Who knows?

Given's today's economic climate, if you still want to stock up on some whiskies, I think you're likely to find them cheaper over the next few quarters. Don't think there are many who are rushing out to buy the latest and greatest these days. No need to rush; the market's coming your way.

My 2 cents.

[vision*R]

Well, then how do you explain the rush for Octomore and Supernova? I guess you're right that the high-priced malts cannot become any more expensive so they're likely to come down over the next few quarters. But the best investments are not these high-end bottlings, it's the lower-end(but highly limited) releases, and there will always be enough interest for those ones, even in a crisis.

I've read an article recently about collecting whisky and the possible value increase: http://www.thewhiskystore.de/experts/collection.htm - it's interesting, with very good advice, but at the same time it makes clear that speculation is always risky.

[anjana101]

Nice article Vision. I read that last year. I do buy bottles to collect for future usage. I have a 4yr old and one on the way. I like to open the bottles on special occasion. I also like to pass it on to them the bottles, I have stocked up on. So would buying a Ardbeg 1965, be good for them.

Andrew

[papercrack]

The Ardbeg Mor looks like a winner long term 4.5 litres of cask strength 10 ( old batch) in a limited release of 1000.
One thing for sure there is less than 1000 still out there.

Looks like a winner over a 20 year time frame.

[Jhelder]

I'm collecting Port Ellen annual releases for my kids (same age as yours). I have collected all 8 releases and I will try to keep up.
I really like the idea of buying a cask for them...it would be fantastic to be able to collect each year a small sample of the cask. That way they can experience the development...the aging of there own whisky to adulthood...during the same time they were aging to adulthood.

Cheers,

Jim Helder

[lincoln imp]

I would personally look for discontinued bottlings from a distillery that has re designed and re packaged its bottlings.
Examples are the old Glenmorangie or Balblair ranges.
You could pick up a decent bottle for £100 now that could certainly triple in value if not more in 10 years or so.

[Wave]

I think if I had that much for whisky (£10,000!) I'd go all out and spend just a bit more for 43 bottles to be exact. Glenfarclas "The Family Casks" (1952 - 1994)
http://www.thewhiskyexchange.com/P-7026.aspx

Cheers!

[vision*R]

I don't think those kind of super-expensive bottles will gain a lot of extra value. It's better to buy higher end 'regular' bottles like an Ardbeg single cask or Lagavulin 21 that are not accessible for 'normal budget' buyers but that are still pretty limited and wanted. The profit on those bottles will be relatively higher, and you're more likely to find a buyer if you want to sell them.

[LagaDrinker]

I wonder what he got in the end, if anything. Its certainly a dilemma I woudl love to have had.